Lovable App

Wind Accuracy

+60.1%

vs persistence baseline

Solar Accuracy

+4.5%

vs persistence baseline

Peak Generation

57.1k MW

next 72h

Congestion Risk

0 critical hrs

Ramp Events

detected next 72h

24h Imbalance €

€16.4M

12h Solarspitzen risk

German Day-Ahead Market Sequence

Every hour of the next-day forecast must clear these checkpoints. After the schedule Cut-Off Time at 15:30 CET, any forecast error is settled in real-time at the reBAP imbalance price.

Next checkpoint

7h 21m

Delivery & 15-min ISP settlement

08:00

D-1

12:00

D-1

12:45 – 13:05

D-1

14:30

D-1

15:30

D-1

16:00

D-1

00:00 – 23:45

08:00D-1

DONE

TSO renewable forecast published

All four German TSOs publish their day-ahead wind & solar forecast (15-min granularity) per § 1 EEG transparency rules. Direct-marketers and traders feed this into their bidding strategy.

netztransparenz.de · EEG transparency

12:00D-1

DONE

EPEX day-ahead order book closes

Gate Closure Time of the Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC) auction on EPEX SPOT. Hourly products for the next day are locked at the cleared market price.

EPEX SPOT MRC Day-Ahead Timings

12:45 – 13:05D-1

DONE

Day-ahead market results published

SDAC clearing prices and volumes published. BRPs now know their day-ahead position; the difference vs. their physical forecast is what they must close on intraday.

EPEX SPOT MRC

14:30D-1

DONE

Schedule nomination GCT

Gate Closure Time per StromNZV §5(1): every balancing-group manager (BKV) must have nominated its day-ahead schedule to the relevant TSO. Cross-border schedules are matched immediately after.

Amprion AG-FPM v4.6 · StromNZV §5(1)

15:30D-1

DONE

Schedule Cut-Off Time (COT)

Last opportunity to correct a nominated schedule after the TSO matching process flags mismatches. After 15:30 the day-ahead schedule is final.

Amprion AG-FPM v4.6

16:00D-1

DONE

Continuous intraday opens

EPEX intraday continuous trading opens for German 15-min, 30-min and hourly contracts. BRPs trade here to close forecast errors as the delivery hour approaches.

EPEX SPOT trading brochure

00:00 – 23:45D

Delivery & 15-min ISP settlement

Physical delivery. Every 15-min ISP, the TSO measures the balancing-group imbalance and settles it at the reBAP. Intraday continuous remains open until 5 min before delivery within the same TSO zone.

Netztransparenz reBAP · TransnetBW MaBiS

GridSight's 72-hour forecast is published before 12:00 CET D-1 so day-ahead bids and TSO schedules can be priced against it — every minute earlier than the schedule Cut-Off Time ( 15:30 CET ) reduces the volume that has to be closed expensively on intraday or settled at the reBAP.

SolarWindTotalBaseline

TSO Region Selection

NormalWarningCritical

Zone Capacity

92.0k MW

Peak Utilization

62%

0%70%90%100%

Imbalance Exposure (reBAP Risk)

Forecast uncertainty translated into € exposure at the German cross-zone imbalance price (reBAP). Quarter-hour settlement: a balancing group that overproduces while the system is long pays the negative reBAP; underproducing while the system is short pays the positive reBAP.

Expected 24h cost

€16.4M

1076k MWh total band

Worst-case 72h

€133.5M

at €250/MWh scarcity

Likely long quarters

15hrs

System surplus expected → overproduction = negative reBAP

Likely short quarters

5hrs

System deficit expected → underproduction = positive reBAP

Solarspitzen hours

12hrs

Midday solar peak quarters at risk of €0 EEG remuneration (573 hrs of negative DA prices in 2025)

Peak exposure hour

06-13 13 CET

€3.5M worst-case at this quarter

Upside risk · long quarterDownside risk · short quarterSolarspitzen quarter (€0 EEG risk)Expected € costWorst-case €

reBAP is symmetrical and quarter-hourly. Magnitudes used here: base €80/MWh (median 2024 magnitude per 50Hertz Almanach), scarcity €250/MWh. Sign convention follows § 8 EBGL: negative when system is long, positive when system is short. Solarspitzengesetz: new PV gets €0 EEG remuneration during any quarter-hour with a negative day-ahead price (573 such hours in 2025, source: EEX / pv-magazine).

Grid Alerts

10 critical

50Hertzramp

↑ 1,954 MW in 1h (+10.9% of capacity)

Amprionramp

↑ 3,033 MW in 1h (+12.1% of capacity)

50Hertzramp

↑ 2,788 MW in 1h (+15.5% of capacity)

50Hertzramp

↓ 1,892 MW in 1h (-10.5% of capacity)

Amprionramp

↓ 2,529 MW in 1h (-10.1% of capacity)

50Hertzramp

↑ 2,103 MW in 1h (+11.7% of capacity)

50Hertzramp

↓ 2,288 MW in 1h (-12.7% of capacity)

50Hertzcongestion

Generation at 95% of capacity (17,141 / 18,000 MW)

50Hertzcongestion

Generation at 98% of capacity (17,684 / 18,000 MW)

50Hertzramp

↓ 2,030 MW in 1h (-11.3% of capacity)

Model vs Baseline

Wind Total

+60.1%

Our MAE

984 MWh

Baseline MAE

2468 MWh

Band Coverage

65%

Solar

+4.5%

Our MAE

781 MWh

Baseline MAE

818 MWh

Band Coverage

48.7%

Methodology

Algorithm

LightGBM GBDT

Quantiles

P10 / P50 / P90

Training Data

182k hours

Test Data

8.8k hours (92 days)

Feature Importance

Wind Model Drivers

temperature 2m19.7%

wind speed 100m17%

wind gusts 10m14.8%

wind sin13.6%

wind cos12.7%

Solar Model Drivers

day of year35.6%

cloud cover30.1%

hour11%

month7%

Problem

German TSOs spend EUR 4.2B/year on redispatch. Inaccurate renewable forecasts force expensive last-minute grid interventions.

Solution

LightGBM quantile models trained on 5 years of SMARD + Open-Meteo data reduce forecast error by up to 60%, enabling proactive congestion management.

Data Foundation

5 years of hourly generation data

4 TSO zones × 6 grid points each

16 weather features from Open-Meteo

SMARD (Bundesnetzagentur, CC BY 4.0)

Economic Impact

€616.9M/yr

Imbalance cost reduction

6260 MWh/hr

Forecast error eliminated